pot

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Accenture Ltd. (NYSE: ACN) beat earnings expectations but revenue was hurt by currency effects.
• Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY) strong Q1 results beat estimates but same-store sales fell.
• CKE Restaurants Inc. (NYSE: CKR) lower Q1 earnings and strong sales both topped expectations.
• ConAgra Foods Inc. (NYSE: CAG) higher Q4 earnings were in line with expectations, and shares slipped.
• Darden Restaurants Inc. (NYSE: DRI) Q4 results were higher, but it warned of continuing challenges.
• Hennes & Mauritz (OTC: HMRZF) reported strong Q2 numbers, though same-stores sales slipped.

The market was lower most of the day after the Commerce Department reported that consumers were saving a lot more than they were spending. Frankly, after yesterday's big gains today could have sold off much more and there would have been little concern.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 8,433.78 -38.62 (-0.46%)
S&P 500 918.48 -1.78 (-0.19%)
Nasdaq 1,838.22 +8.68 (0.47%)

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) is under fire today after the firm lowered its second-quarter earnings outlook. Late Thursday, POT said it now expects earnings per share of 70 cents, compared to its prior outlook of $1.10 to $1.50 per share.

The company chalked up its slashed guidance to "substantially lower than forecasted potash sales volumes due to deferral of purchases by customers around the world and lower realized prices for phosphate fertilizers."

POT's full second-quarter results will be reported on July 23. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are looking for a profit of 81 cents per share, on average.

The fertilizer sector is one sector that investors who can tolerate moderate risk should not pass up.

I'm Reiterating a Buy recommendation for Potash (NYSE: POT), re-established with a Buy recommendation here on March 31, 2009, and for Mosaic (NYSE: MOS), re-established here on April 3, 2009; and adding a Buy recommendation for Agrium (NYSE: AGU).

Agricultural entity Monsanto (NYSE: MON) reported Q2 numbers on Thursday. While some metrics were down, I came away from the earnings release thinking that the company is probably a good long-term holding. Short-term could be a different story, though, as the stock has had a run-up recently.

Sales increased 8% in the second quarter, but profits on a dollar basis decreased 3%. On an adjusted basis, however, net income beat Wall Street's expectations. Analysts were looking for $2.07 per share. Monsanto delivered $2.16 per share. Excellent.

It's a market than can frustrate -- and humble -- institutional investors and individual investors alike. Moreover, perhaps the most memorable dimension to the bear market that began in October 2007 will be its ability to take down the stocks of companies with demonstrated business models, and Potash Corp. (NYSE: POT) is one.

Potash remains one of the preeminent fertilizer companies in the world, producing three critical, primary plant nutrients and phosphate animal feed ingredients, for both developed and developing world markets. It is the largest producer in the world of its namesake, potash, which accounted for 43% of revenue in 2008.

In a recession, most professionals suggest that investors take a defensive posture.

That theory states that buying stocks with great balance sheets and stable cash flow is a way to withstand the downdraft of a bear market. If you own stocks of companies with products that consumers have to buy, you can expect to beat the market performance-wise.

Again, this bear market has been different in many ways. Even the most defensive stocks are losing value in a big way. None of it makes sense.

Despite the recent rally, this has been the most difficult period for investors since the Great Depression, and many trying to time a bottom in this market have been burned.

And the reality is that we are still not out of the woods. So is it time to give up?

Not at all!

There are companies operating in this environment that are actually growing their business despite the recession. And these stocks should hold their own in this bear market, even if we retest the recent lows.

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Steve Smith.

There is smoke but no fire in the Potash(NYSE:POT) options activity today.

There has been recent rumors that fertilizer industry is due for some consolidation so companies such as Potash, Mosaic(NYSE:MOS)and Monsanto (NYSE:MON)can get some pricing power back. This has led to some takeover speculation that has helped the shares trend higher and caused an increase in the options' volume of late.

This morning there was a big option transaction in POT in which 11,000 of the April $90 calls traded in one slug. But don't let that lead you into thinking someone is making a big buy-out bet. The trade was executed at at the offer price of $2.70 a contract. Actually the price was a small "discount" to the theoretical fair value. This suggests the initiating party was selling the calls. Most likely it is an overwrite against long stock to take in some premium.

It still leaves someone with a bullish position, they have a potential upside of about $12.60 or 15% over the next month. But it doesn't appear anyone is betting the farm on a $95 plus takeover.

When Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) fell from its June 2008 peak of $241.62, it fell hard. The stock bottomed out at $47.54 in early December, marking an 80.3% decline from peak to nadir. The shares have recently shown signs of life, though, having gained 78.7% during the past two months.

Even more compelling, POT closed last Friday atop resistance from its 20-week moving average for the first time since August, and appears poised to do so again this week. So, with the stock rallying back from its lows, why are investors gravitating toward bearish bets?

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Air Products and Chemicals Inc. (NYSE: APD) met Q1 profit estimates and lowered its guidance.
• Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) stellar Q1 results easily topped analysts' expectations, sending shares higher.
• Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) unimpressive Q2 results due to holiday sales were in line with expectations.
• General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) Q4 profits were dragged down finance, consumer divisions.
• Harley-Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG) Q4 earnings tumbled on lower demand globally and domestically.
• Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) reported better-than-expected Q4 earnings but lower revenue.
• Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) released its dismal Q2 results early and announced job cuts.
• Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (NYSE: POT) Q4 earnings more than doubled on higher prices.
• Seagate Technology (NYSE: STX) fell after posting losses and guidance for more weakness ahead.
• Sony Corp. (NYSE: SNE) warned that it would post its biggest loss ever in full-year 2008.
• State Street Corp. (NYSE: STT) earnings tumbled on charges but still topped analysts' estimates.
• UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE: UNH) Q4 earnings were in line with estimates and it reaffirmed its outlook.
• United Technologies Corp. (NYSE: UTX) modest Q4 earnings growth was in line with expectations.

For more highlights from this week, see eBay, Google, IBM, Southwest, UAL, AMR, Northern Trust and others

Fertilizer firm Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) reported today that its fourth-quarter profit more than doubled, boosted by higher prices, but the firm warned that first-quarter and 2009 earnings will fall short of analysts' expectations. For the recently concluded quarter, POT banked a profit of $788 million, or $2.56 per share, on sales of $1.87 billion. Ahead of the report, Wall Street was expecting earnings of $2.28 per share on revenue of $1.82 billion.

Going forward, Potash Corp. said that 2009 potash shipments will be flat to slightly lower than 2008 levels, though it expects demand will gradually recover during the second half of the year. As a result, the company expects a first-quarter profit of 70 cents to $1 per share, and full-year earnings of $10 to $12 per share. Both figures fall woefully short of analysts' consensus estimates, which call for a first-quarter profit of $1.81 per share and 2009 earnings of $12.72 per share.

I think it's fair to say that there's much trepidation about the earnings season that picks up steam this week. And for better or worse, numbers from the big financials have begun to roll in. Last week we saw profit sink for JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and significant losses from Bank of American Corp. (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C), and Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB).

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (NYSE: BK) to be among those financials reporting fourth-quarter earnings growth this week. They anticipate that Bank of New York will post a profit of $0.70 per share, compared to $0.67 per share a year ago and $0.72 in the previous quarter. Revenue is expected come to $3.8 billion, about the same as it was a year ago. Bank of New York has fallen short of earnings estimates in two of the past five quarters, by as much as 11.1%. For the full year, analysts are looking for $2.78 per share (+5.8%) on $14.8 billion (+4.2%). The consensus recommendation of analysts is to buy BK, and the long-term EPS growth rate forecast is 10.7%. Shares are 48.7% lower than a year ago. Other financials expected to report quarterly earnings growth this week include SunTrust Banks Inc. (NYSE: STI) and M&T Bank Corp. (NYSE: MTB).

The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS), one of the world's leading producers of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients, reported Monday a fiscal second-quarter profit of $959.8 million, or $2.15 per diluted share. That was 58.6% higher than in the same period of the previous year. Net sales in the quarter ended November 30, 2007 came to $3.0 billion, an increase of 36.9% from a year ago. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected per-share earnings of $1.43 per share on revenue of $3.0 billion.

Mosaic's gross margin for the quarter was $773.7 million, or 25.7% of net sales, compared with $623.1 million, or 28.4% of net sales, a year ago. Mosaic said it ended the second quarter with $2.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents.

For the first half ended November 30, 2008, net sales were $7.3 billion, an increase of 74.6% compared to last year. Year-to-date operating earnings were $2.2 billion compared with $979.2 million for the same period a year ago.

The Minnesota-based company said worldwide crop nutrient sales activity is expected to remain weak through the third quarter, so the company is reducing production to manage excess inventories, reduce capital expenditures, and maintain financial strength and flexibility. Mosaic expects its operating cash flow to be negative at least through the third quarter as a result of the weak near-term outlook.

The share price rose Monday 2.2% to $37.67. Shares have risen 36.6% in the past month, but are 60.5% lower than a year ago.

Shares of rival Potash Corp. (NYSE: POT) also rose on Monday.

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

This post is part of a special annual report -- Top Stock Picks '09 -- in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked 75 leading newsletter advisors to select their favorite investment for the new year.

"Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT), the world's largest integrated fertilizer company, is my top pick for 2009," says long-term growth stock specialist Dennis Slothower.

In his Stealth Stocks, he explains, "If you are an aggressive investor looking for a stock that has tremendous potential under an Obama massive stimulation program, Potash has significant potential."

The advisor continues, "POT is the largest producer of potash worldwide by capacity. In 2007, it estimates its potash operations represented 17% of global production and 22% of global potash capacity.

"The company is the second largest nitrogen producer worldwide by ammonia capacity. In 2007, POT estimates its nitrogen operations produced 2% of the world's ammonia production. It is also the third largest producer of phosphates worldwide by capacity.